US data sits on a Nikkei options site because Japanese equities track US rates and risk appetite closely. Positioning in US markets feeds straight into the Nikkei's opening print and into Nikkei option volatility the same session. This page collects that backdrop every business day.
0.78
0.58
1.15
COT Speculator Net Positions (Weekly)⭳ Download CSV
From the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Leveraged funds for index/FX futures, managed money for gold/crude. Tuesday data, released Friday. The gray line is the price of each market (right axis), so positioning can be compared against price action.
| Market | Net Position | WoW | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | 半導体(SOX) | +3x | 26.5 | +6.52 | +3.456 |
| TQQQ | NASDAQ100 | +3x | 39.4 | +2.90 | +2.282 |
| SOXS | 半導体(SOX) | -3x | 1.6 | -6.45 | +0.421 |
| QLD | NASDAQ100 | +2x | 15.5 | +1.96 | +0.304 |
| SPXL | S&P500 | +3x | 7.1 | +2.10 | +0.300 |
| SQQQ | NASDAQ100 | -3x | 2.0 | -2.90 | +0.235 |
| UPRO | S&P500 | +3x | 5.4 | +2.12 | +0.230 |
| SSO | S&P500 | +2x | 8.6 | +1.42 | +0.122 |
| TNA | ラッセル2000 | +3x | 1.3 | +2.54 | +0.067 |
| SPXU | S&P500 | -3x | 0.4 | -2.02 | +0.034 |
| SPXS | S&P500 | -3x | 0.3 | -2.03 | +0.026 |
| TZA | ラッセル2000 | -3x | 0.2 | -2.47 | +0.023 |
| UDOW | NYダウ | +3x | 0.8 | +1.37 | +0.023 |
| SDOW | NYダウ | -3x | 0.1 | -1.30 | +0.008 |
CBOE Put/Call Ratios (Daily)
Bearish/bullish skew of the US options market. Above 1.0 = puts dominant.
| Category | Put/Call Ratio |
|---|---|
| Total | 0.78 |
| Index | 0.86 |
| Equity | 0.58 |
| SPX+SPXW | 1.15 |
| VIX | 0.14 |
SPX Options: OI Walls & Gamma Exposure (Estimate)⭳ Download CSV
7,723
+20.3
7,850
25% (10/5)
From Cboe delayed data (as of last US close), expiries within 45 days, strikes within ±10% of spot. GEX uses the standard naive assumption (dealers long calls, short puts) and is an estimate, not actual dealer positioning. Positive GEX tends to dampen volatility; negative GEX tends to amplify it.
Leveraged ETF Size & Estimated Rebalancing⭳ Download CSV
+7.53 (net buying into close (amplifies up-moves))
Leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SOXL, etc.) rebalance into the close to maintain constant leverage: buying on up days, selling on down days — a momentum force. Its size scales with each fund's AUM, so the chart shows assets under management. The table also lists the estimated end-of-day rebalancing flow derived from AUM and the daily return (an estimate). This is a different mechanism from options gamma exposure and cannot simply be added to it.
| ETF | Underlying | Leverage | AUM($bn) | Day% | Est. flow($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | 半導体(SOX) | +3x | 26.5 | +6.52 | +3.456 |
| TQQQ | NASDAQ100 | +3x | 39.4 | +2.90 | +2.282 |
| SOXS | 半導体(SOX) | -3x | 1.6 | -6.45 | +0.421 |
| QLD | NASDAQ100 | +2x | 15.5 | +1.96 | +0.304 |
| SPXL | S&P500 | +3x | 7.1 | +2.10 | +0.300 |
| SQQQ | NASDAQ100 | -3x | 2.0 | -2.90 | +0.235 |
| UPRO | S&P500 | +3x | 5.4 | +2.12 | +0.230 |
| SSO | S&P500 | +2x | 8.6 | +1.42 | +0.122 |
| TNA | ラッセル2000 | +3x | 1.3 | +2.54 | +0.067 |
| SPXU | S&P500 | -3x | 0.4 | -2.02 | +0.034 |
| SPXS | S&P500 | -3x | 0.3 | -2.03 | +0.026 |
| TZA | ラッセル2000 | -3x | 0.2 | -2.47 | +0.023 |
| UDOW | NYダウ | +3x | 0.8 | +1.37 | +0.023 |
| SDOW | NYダウ | -3x | 0.1 | -1.30 | +0.008 |
Four datasets, four different clocks
| Data | What it shows | Frequency | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| COT | Speculative positioning | Weekly | Three business days |
| CBOE put/call ratio | That day's trading skew | Daily | One session |
| SPX gamma | Direction of dealer hedging | Daily | One session (delayed data) |
| Leveraged ETFs | Mechanical flow into the close | Daily | One session |
The COT lag matters. In a week the market moves hard, the report can be stale by the time it lands. It works better as a check on whether positioning has reached an extreme than as a timing tool.
Gamma and leveraged ETFs do not add up
Both are mechanical flows, but the mechanisms differ. Option gamma is dealers re-hedging continuously through the session — dampening when positive, amplifying when negative. Leveraged ETF rebalancing is concentrated at the close and always amplifies: buying on up days, selling on down days. Different clocks, different sign conventions; the notionals cannot be summed.
Reading it against Japan
When SPX gamma sits negative, US-hours moves get amplified, and the result arrives in the Nikkei's opening print. Comparing the sign against the Japanese gamma estimate gives a rough read on how choppy the Tokyo session may be.
Both are estimates. Dealer inventories are not disclosed; the assumptions are set out in Gamma Exposure, Honestly.
See also: Macro Risk Monitor ・ Fed Watch