A mechanical check of risk-event signals from official US statistics and market data. Signals are threshold-based flags per the cited sources — not this site's market forecast.
●13 ●3 ●0
●Green = normal / ●Yellow = caution / ●Red = warning
Recession Risk
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | As of | Threshold Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | Sahm Rule | 0.00 | 2026-09-01 | 0.50+ historically marks recession onset |
| ● | Initial Claims (4wk avg) | 200k | 2026-09-26 | Caution above 280k, warning above 350k |
| ● | Yield Curve (10y-3m) | +1.09% | 2026-10-02 | Inversion has preceded recessions |
| ● | Yield Curve (10y-2y) | +0.45% | 2026-10-02 | Same as above |
| ● | Recession Prob. (Chauvet-Piger) | 0.6% | 2026-08-01 | St. Louis Fed smoothed probability |
| ● | NY Fed 12m Recession Prob. | 13.9% | 2027-08 | NY Fed yield-curve model; 30%+ is a strong signal |
Inflation Re-acceleration Risk
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | As of | Threshold Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 10y Breakeven Inflation | 2.36% | 2026-10-02 | Caution above 2.5%, warning above 3% |
| ● | 5y5y Forward Inflation | 2.35% | 2026-10-02 | Fed's preferred long-run expectations gauge |
| ● | US CPI (YoY) | 3.7% | 2026-08 | Caution above 3%, warning above 4% |
| ● | US Core PCE (YoY) | 3.0% | 2026-08 | Fed target 2%; caution above 2.5% |
| ● | Japan CPI (YoY) | -0.4% | 2021-06 | BOJ target 2%; caution above 2.5% (OECD series, lagged) |
| ● | WTI Crude (YoY) | $96 (+50%) | 2026-09-29 | Caution above +20% YoY |
Financial Stress
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | As of | Threshold Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | Chicago Fed NFCI | -0.55 | 2026-09-25 | Above 0 = tighter than average |
| ● | St. Louis Fed Stress Index | -0.81 | 2026-09-25 | Above 0 = above-normal stress |
| ● | High Yield Spread | 3.24% | 2026-10-01 | Caution above 4%, warning above 6% |
| ● | VIX | 16.4 | 2026-10-01 | Caution above 20, warning above 30 |
Key Series (3 years)
US-Japan Rate Spread & USD/JPY
How to read this page
Recessions and inflation restarts are never obvious on the day. Several indicators tilt a little at a time, and only in hindsight does one of them look like the turning point. This page exists to lay out those tilts every business day without editorialising.
The signal colours are set mechanically from thresholds published by the data source, drawn from academic work, or established by market convention — not from any view of ours. Each threshold is printed in the right-hand column, so you can substitute your own.
Why three groups
- Recession risk — whether the real economy is contracting. It shows up in labour data and the shape of the curve, and it moves slowly; the gap between a signal and an actual downturn has run well over a year
- Inflation restart risk — breakeven rates are the market's forecast of future inflation, so they move earlier than realised CPI
- Financial stress — whether funding is seizing up. This is the only group that can change within days, and it reaches equity prices before the macro data does
Caveats
No single indicator decides anything. Every one of these has a false-positive history. Curve inversion is the best known recession lead, but the lag to the actual downturn has varied enormously, and some recessions began only after the inversion had already un-inverted. It cannot time anything on its own.
The Sahm rule is backward-looking. It fires when the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a point above its twelve-month low. It has a strong record, but payroll data is monthly and gets revised, so by the time it fires the thing has started.
Breakevens are market prices. The ten-year breakeven is the spread between nominal and inflation-linked Treasuries — what investors are pricing, not what prices are doing. Thin liquidity can exaggerate it.
An absence of red is not safety. These are indicators that worked in past crises. A crisis that arrives by another route will happen with every light still green.
Why US data on a Nikkei site
Japanese equities track US rates and growth closely. When the FOMC's rate path shifts, Nikkei futures move, and it reaches Nikkei option volatility the same session. Having the US backdrop makes the positioning visible on the Japanese open interest and gamma pages easier to reason about.
See also: US market data ・ Fed Watch